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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +23.77 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY63.5%74.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+23.77 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 09:40 PMJul 30, 09:42 PMJul 30, 09:44 PMJul 30, 09:46 PMJul 30, 09:48 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T21:40:57.262Z63.5%63.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T21:41:06.686Z63.5%100.0%+36.5 pp
2026-07-30T21:41:15.705Z63.5%100.0%+36.5 pp
2026-07-30T21:41:26.691Z63.5%100.0%+36.5 pp
2026-07-30T21:42:23.660Z42.5%63.5%+21.0 pp
2026-07-30T21:42:37.505Z63.5%63.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T21:42:54.391Z63.5%100.0%+36.5 pp
2026-07-30T21:43:24.285Z32.5%100.0%+67.5 pp
2026-07-30T21:44:24.592Z32.5%32.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T21:44:38.676Z32.5%32.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T21:44:55.695Z32.5%100.0%+67.5 pp
2026-07-30T21:45:26.199Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-30T21:46:22.946Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T21:46:33.820Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T21:47:24.551Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T21:48:24.306Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 63.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 74.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 23.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 74.4%, gross edge 26.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 23.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +23.77 pp Edge | AntiPredict