VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.36 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 69.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 15.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.2%, gross edge 18.8%, slippage 1.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 15.3%. Marx fair UP is 69.8%.