Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +70.81 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY26.5%27.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+70.81 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 12:55 PMJul 30, 12:57 PMJul 30, 12:58 PMJul 30, 12:59 PMJul 30, 01:01 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T12:55:33.147Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T12:56:12.873Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T12:56:25.883Z26.5%26.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T12:56:41.804Z26.5%100.0%+73.5 pp
2026-07-30T12:57:03.993Z28.5%100.0%+71.5 pp
2026-07-30T12:57:59.117Z28.5%28.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T12:58:23.854Z28.5%28.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T12:58:59.011Z28.5%50.5%+22.0 pp
2026-07-30T12:59:06.654Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T12:59:17.560Z28.5%28.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T12:59:36.344Z28.5%100.0%+71.5 pp
2026-07-30T12:59:58.241Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-30T13:01:04.980Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T13:01:28.454Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 26.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 27.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 70.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 27.3%, gross edge 73.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 70.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.