VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +15.52 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.4% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY30.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+15.52 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 30, 09:00 AMJul 30, 09:01 AMJul 30, 09:03 AMJul 30, 09:05 AMJul 30, 09:07 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T09:00:00.972Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:00:26.279Z	49.5%	24.1%	-25.4 pp
2026-07-30T09:02:04.474Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:03:33.006Z	49.5%	18.4%	-31.1 pp
2026-07-30T09:04:39.535Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:05:29.371Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:05:29.444Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T09:07:14.138Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 30.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 15.5 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.4%, gross edge 18.2%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 15.5%. Marx fair UP is 30.8%.