VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.45 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 59.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.1%, gross edge 9.0%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.7%. Marx fair UP is 60.0%.