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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.19 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY59.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.19 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-14.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 30, 10:50 PMJul 30, 10:52 PMJul 30, 10:54 PMJul 30, 10:55 PMJul 30, 10:57 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-30T22:50:31.476Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:50:57.955Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:52:12.325Z58.5%100.0%+41.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:52:43.736Z58.5%100.0%+41.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:52:43.995Z9.5%100.0%+90.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:53:41.242Z4.5%4.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:54:11.927Z4.5%4.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:54:38.084Z4.5%4.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:55:22.006Z4.5%100.0%+95.5 pp
2026-07-30T22:55:43.147Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-07-30T22:56:23.218Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-07-30T22:57:24.378Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T22:57:41.134Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 59.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.6%, gross edge 8.7%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.8%. Marx fair UP is 59.7%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.19 pp Edge | AntiPredict