VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +80.24 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%17.7% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+80.24 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 30, 08:20 AMJul 30, 08:22 AMJul 30, 08:25 AMJul 30, 08:27 AMJul 30, 08:29 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T08:20:17.921Z	49.5%	0.5%	-49.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:23:07.391Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:23:14.966Z	95.5%	49.5%	-46.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:23:29.775Z	95.5%	95.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:24:03.368Z	95.5%	95.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:25:02.962Z	95.5%	0.0%	-95.5 pp
2026-07-30T08:25:22.776Z	91.5%	0.0%	-91.5 pp
2026-07-30T08:25:46.882Z	100.0%	0.0%	-99.9 pp
2026-07-30T08:26:55.862Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:27:47.137Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:28:10.983Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:28:45.248Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T08:29:44.908Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 17.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 80.2 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 17.7%, gross edge 82.5%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 80.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.5%.