VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +68.30 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%29.7% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+68.30 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 30, 06:11 AMJul 30, 06:13 AMJul 30, 06:14 AMJul 30, 06:15 AMJul 30, 06:16 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-30T06:11:59.131Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-30T06:13:08.799Z	88.5%	50.5%	-38.0 pp
2026-07-30T06:13:24.789Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T06:14:26.979Z	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5 pp
2026-07-30T06:14:55.618Z	88.5%	0.0%	-88.5 pp
2026-07-30T06:15:52.848Z	99.5%	50.5%	-49.0 pp
2026-07-30T06:15:57.437Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-30T06:16:15.504Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 29.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 68.3 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 29.7%, gross edge 71.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 68.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.