VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +24.15 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 29, 11:40 PMJul 29, 11:42 PMJul 29, 11:45 PMJul 29, 11:47 PMJul 29, 11:49 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T23:40:24.928Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:41:40.591Z | 74.5% | 49.5% | -25.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:42:06.907Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:42:18.533Z | 62.5% | 62.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:42:40.799Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:42:42.239Z | 72.5% | 74.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:43:09.042Z | 72.5% | 72.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:43:19.918Z | 72.5% | 0.0% | -72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:43:44.337Z | 72.5% | 0.0% | -72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:44:42.326Z | 99.5% | 72.5% | -27.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:44:55.323Z | 72.5% | 72.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:45:21.395Z | 72.5% | 0.0% | -72.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:45:47.560Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:46:44.608Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:46:53.803Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:47:42.897Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:48:47.275Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:49:42.255Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 74.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 24.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 74.0%, gross edge 26.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.3%, safety 0.5%, net edge 24.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.