VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +57.35 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 50.5%Marx Fair UP 50.5%
Jul 29, 11:36 PMJul 29, 11:38 PMJul 29, 11:39 PMJul 29, 11:41 PMJul 29, 11:43 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T23:36:36.300Z | 72.5% | 79.5% | +7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:36:47.325Z | 75.5% | 79.5% | +4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:36:58.485Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:37:16.293Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:37:47.674Z | 75.5% | 0.0% | -75.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:38:09.542Z | 75.5% | 0.0% | -75.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:38:50.595Z | 75.5% | 0.0% | -75.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:39:42.445Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:39:55.379Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:40:24.844Z | 75.5% | 0.0% | -75.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:40:46.106Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:41:47.775Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:42:42.239Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:43:20.191Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 75.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 40.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 57.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 40.5%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 57.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.