VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +20.60 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 29, 11:25 PMJul 29, 11:27 PMJul 29, 11:30 PMJul 29, 11:32 PMJul 29, 11:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T23:25:42.381Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:25:50.669Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:26:19.121Z | 42.5% | 13.2% | -29.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:26:42.670Z | 42.5% | 13.2% | -29.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:27:42.501Z | 99.5% | 42.5% | -57.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:27:58.297Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:28:14.296Z | 42.5% | 7.1% | -35.4 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:29:58.867Z | 42.5% | 42.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:30:23.720Z | 42.5% | 6.8% | -35.7 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:31:42.497Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:31:53.863Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:32:43.603Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:33:47.475Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:34:47.908Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 25.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 20.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.7%, gross edge 23.6%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 20.6%. Marx fair UP is 25.4%.