VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +40.06 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 29, 10:55 PMJul 29, 10:57 PMJul 29, 11:00 PMJul 29, 11:02 PMJul 29, 11:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T22:55:16.258Z | 49.5% | 2.2% | -47.3 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:56:30.748Z | 99.5% | 52.5% | -47.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:56:54.816Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:57:22.203Z | 52.5% | 1.7% | -50.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:57:22.866Z | 52.5% | 1.7% | -50.8 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:58:55.362Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:59:12.327Z | 52.5% | 0.5% | -52.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:00:55.369Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:01:06.167Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:01:25.533Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:01:37.466Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:01:48.837Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:02:44.234Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:02:54.966Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:03:58.447Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T23:04:50.473Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 6.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 40.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 42.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 40.1%. Marx fair UP is 6.7%.