VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +38.27 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Jul 29, 10:25 PMJul 29, 10:27 PMJul 29, 10:29 PMJul 29, 10:31 PMJul 29, 10:33 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T22:25:14.945Z | 49.5% | 0.0% | -49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:26:19.752Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:26:44.057Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:26:54.442Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:27:14.615Z | 56.5% | 0.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:27:42.884Z | 56.5% | 0.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:28:42.276Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:28:51.760Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:29:31.231Z | 56.5% | 0.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:29:31.597Z | 56.5% | 0.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:29:42.235Z | 56.5% | 0.0% | -56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:30:42.380Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:30:55.450Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:31:18.646Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:31:43.777Z | 99.5% | 0.0% | -99.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:32:43.653Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:32:53.333Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T22:33:54.104Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.4 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 59.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 59.5%, gross edge 41.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.