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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +81.11 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY63.5%17.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+81.11 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 10:00 PMJul 29, 10:02 PMJul 29, 10:04 PMJul 29, 10:06 PMJul 29, 10:08 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T22:00:05.740Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:00:46.563Z63.5%63.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:00:53.708Z63.5%63.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:01:21.320Z63.5%0.0%-63.5 pp
2026-07-29T22:01:46.524Z63.5%0.0%-63.5 pp
2026-07-29T22:02:42.321Z63.5%63.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:02:50.059Z63.5%63.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:03:18.822Z63.5%0.0%-63.5 pp
2026-07-29T22:04:05.894Z63.5%0.0%-63.5 pp
2026-07-29T22:04:48.491Z63.5%0.0%-63.5 pp
2026-07-29T22:06:40.370Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-29T22:08:11.738Z100.0%0.0%-100.0 pp
2026-07-29T22:08:31.671Z100.0%0.0%-99.9 pp
2026-07-29T22:08:49.037Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 63.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 17.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 81.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 17.4%, gross edge 83.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.0%, safety 0.5%, net edge 81.1%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +81.11 pp Edge | AntiPredict