VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.18 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 41.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 51.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.6%, gross edge 8.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.2%. Marx fair UP is 41.0%.