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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +14.23 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY32.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+14.23 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN81.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 07:15 PMJul 29, 07:17 PMJul 29, 07:19 PMJul 29, 07:22 PMJul 29, 07:24 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T19:15:22.638Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:15:34.096Z49.5%36.9%-12.6 pp
2026-07-29T19:15:43.328Z41.5%36.9%-4.6 pp
2026-07-29T19:15:44.592Z38.5%36.9%-1.6 pp
2026-07-29T19:16:47.263Z38.5%38.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:16:55.419Z38.5%38.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:17:01.816Z41.5%41.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:17:12.162Z38.5%38.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:17:42.363Z38.5%38.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:18:20.625Z38.5%25.1%-13.4 pp
2026-07-29T19:18:51.079Z38.5%25.1%-13.4 pp
2026-07-29T19:19:50.033Z38.5%0.0%-38.5 pp
2026-07-29T19:20:27.658Z38.5%0.0%-38.5 pp
2026-07-29T19:21:28.646Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-29T19:21:44.447Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-29T19:24:28.854Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 32.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 16.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 14.2%. Marx fair UP is 32.5%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +14.23 pp Edge | AntiPredict