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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +11.90 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY35.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+11.90 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 94.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 07:10 PMJul 29, 07:12 PMJul 29, 07:14 PMJul 29, 07:16 PMJul 29, 07:18 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T19:10:45.999Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:10:56.092Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:11:19.582Z49.5%13.1%-36.4 pp
2026-07-29T19:11:42.128Z72.5%13.1%-59.4 pp
2026-07-29T19:12:43.206Z72.5%72.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:12:51.614Z72.5%72.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:13:18.258Z72.5%52.3%-20.2 pp
2026-07-29T19:13:42.380Z72.5%52.3%-20.2 pp
2026-07-29T19:14:52.759Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:15:22.557Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:15:34.419Z99.5%70.6%-28.9 pp
2026-07-29T19:15:44.592Z99.5%70.6%-28.9 pp
2026-07-29T19:16:47.263Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:16:53.120Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:17:42.363Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T19:18:51.079Z94.5%99.5%+5.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 35.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 11.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 14.2%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 11.9%. Marx fair UP is 35.8%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +11.90 pp Edge | AntiPredict