VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +12.78 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 71.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 56.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 12.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 6.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 56.1%, gross edge 18.1%, slippage 3.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 12.8%. Marx fair UP is 71.1%.