Ethereum Prediction Markets
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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +16.72 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY46.5%78.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY96.4%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+16.72 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN26.3%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 94.5%Marx Fair UP 94.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 06:41 PMJul 29, 06:43 PMJul 29, 06:45 PMJul 29, 06:47 PMJul 29, 06:49 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T18:41:01.632Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:41:26.875Z46.5%83.5%+37.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:41:43.976Z46.5%83.5%+37.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:42:44.376Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:42:58.770Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:43:16.840Z46.5%96.4%+49.9 pp
2026-07-29T18:43:44.308Z46.5%96.4%+49.9 pp
2026-07-29T18:44:44.540Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:44:57.809Z46.5%46.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:45:22.975Z46.5%100.0%+53.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:45:45.669Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:45:57.983Z99.5%100.0%+0.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:46:43.911Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:46:56.158Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:47:45.336Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:48:50.107Z94.5%94.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:49:28.514Z94.5%94.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 96.4% while the Polymarket UP price was 46.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 78.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 16.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 78.0%, gross edge 18.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 16.7%. Marx fair UP is 96.4%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +16.72 pp Edge | AntiPredict