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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.74 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+47.74 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 06:10 PMJul 29, 06:12 PMJul 29, 06:13 PMJul 29, 06:15 PMJul 29, 06:16 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T18:10:26.305Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:10:56.894Z69.5%69.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:11:26.901Z69.5%100.0%+30.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:11:44.277Z69.5%100.0%+30.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:12:42.215Z69.5%69.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:13:04.538Z69.5%69.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:13:15.401Z69.5%100.0%+30.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:13:45.241Z69.5%100.0%+30.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:14:42.401Z69.5%69.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:14:51.841Z69.5%69.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:15:18.519Z69.5%100.0%+30.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:15:44.819Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:16:43.259Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:16:57.048Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.74 pp Edge | AntiPredict