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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.69 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%50.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY69.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+17.69 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 06:06 PMJul 29, 06:08 PMJul 29, 06:10 PMJul 29, 06:12 PMJul 29, 06:14 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T18:06:43.850Z38.5%49.5%+11.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:06:58.891Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:07:26.188Z55.5%55.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:07:38.153Z38.5%38.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:07:43.102Z38.5%38.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:08:45.549Z38.5%100.0%+61.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:08:50.234Z38.5%100.0%+61.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:09:42.649Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:10:26.299Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:10:43.685Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:11:25.524Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:11:44.277Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-29T18:12:42.215Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:13:14.711Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:13:45.241Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T18:14:42.401Z0.0%0.5%+0.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 69.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 19.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.7%. Marx fair UP is 69.9%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.69 pp Edge | AntiPredict