VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.55 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY39.5%50.2% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+47.55 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%

Jul 29, 05:30 PMJul 29, 05:32 PMJul 29, 05:34 PMJul 29, 05:35 PMJul 29, 05:37 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-29T17:30:56.632Z	39.5%	39.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:31:03.737Z	39.5%	39.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:31:17.063Z	39.5%	0.0%	-39.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:31:42.736Z	39.5%	0.0%	-39.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:32:42.735Z	39.5%	39.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:32:56.589Z	39.5%	39.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:33:16.395Z	39.5%	0.0%	-39.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:33:48.979Z	99.5%	0.0%	-99.5 pp
2026-07-29T17:34:43.425Z	100.0%	0.0%	-99.9 pp
2026-07-29T17:35:58.080Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:36:57.467Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T17:37:06.309Z	100.0%	100.0%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 39.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 50.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.5 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 71.4%, gross edge 29.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 26.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.