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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +28.51 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY39.5%69.5% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+28.51 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN40.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 03:51 PMJul 29, 03:53 PMJul 29, 03:55 PMJul 29, 03:57 PMJul 29, 03:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T15:51:13.914Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:51:18.057Z39.5%50.5%+11.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:51:33.850Z39.5%0.0%-39.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:51:34.858Z39.5%0.0%-39.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:51:42.312Z39.5%0.0%-39.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:52:42.080Z39.5%39.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:52:54.776Z39.5%39.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:53:41.961Z6.5%6.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:53:52.176Z6.5%6.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:54:21.505Z6.5%0.0%-6.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:54:23.015Z6.5%0.0%-6.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:54:42.262Z6.5%0.0%-6.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:55:42.202Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:55:51.469Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:56:16.424Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:56:45.140Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:57:41.942Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:57:52.899Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:58:48.073Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:59:42.434Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 39.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 69.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 69.5%, gross edge 31.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 28.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +28.51 pp Edge | AntiPredict