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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.47 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%51.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.47 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 03:55 PMJul 29, 03:57 PMJul 29, 03:59 PMJul 29, 04:01 PMJul 29, 04:03 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T15:55:51.494Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:56:16.474Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:56:20.663Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:56:45.140Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:57:41.942Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:57:52.929Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:58:21.736Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:58:24.623Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:58:48.073Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:59:42.434Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:59:59.772Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:00:42.040Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:00:56.445Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T16:01:19.221Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-29T16:03:15.726Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.47 pp Edge | AntiPredict