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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +57.82 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%40.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+57.82 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 03:26 PMJul 29, 03:28 PMJul 29, 03:30 PMJul 29, 03:32 PMJul 29, 03:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T15:26:03.911Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:27:07.163Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:27:16.045Z50.5%0.0%-50.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:29:00.612Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:29:59.737Z52.5%52.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:30:09.741Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:30:16.647Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:30:41.936Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-29T15:31:42.015Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:31:58.330Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:32:42.138Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:33:49.005Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T15:34:43.672Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 40.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 57.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 40.0%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 57.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +57.82 pp Edge | AntiPredict