VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +5.11 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 30, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 40.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 9.9%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.7%. Marx fair UP is 39.1%.