VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.28 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 40.5%
Jul 29, 02:10 PMJul 29, 02:12 PMJul 29, 02:14 PMJul 29, 02:16 PMJul 29, 02:18 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T14:10:51.316Z | 35.5% | 35.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:11:22.376Z | 35.5% | 100.0% | +64.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:11:43.396Z | 40.5% | 100.0% | +59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:12:41.961Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:12:53.924Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:13:22.689Z | 40.5% | 100.0% | +59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:13:42.917Z | 40.5% | 100.0% | +59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:14:42.368Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:14:53.607Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:15:19.340Z | 40.5% | 100.0% | +59.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:15:45.671Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:16:42.298Z | 40.5% | 0.1% | -40.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:16:59.696Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:17:21.878Z | 40.5% | 40.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:17:45.120Z | 37.5% | 40.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T14:18:46.755Z | 0.0% | 40.5% | +40.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.3 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.5%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.3%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.