VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.06 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 92.5%Marx Fair UP 99.0%
Jul 29, 01:25 PMJul 29, 01:27 PMJul 29, 01:29 PMJul 29, 01:32 PMJul 29, 01:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T13:25:13.689Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:26:14.840Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:26:44.012Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:26:54.311Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:27:09.355Z | 30.5% | 100.0% | +69.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:27:43.984Z | 30.5% | 100.0% | +69.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:28:43.390Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:28:59.473Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:29:16.919Z | 30.5% | 100.0% | +69.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:29:41.626Z | 30.5% | 100.0% | +69.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:30:41.971Z | 99.0% | 99.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:30:53.115Z | 99.0% | 99.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:31:14.346Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:31:43.432Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:32:41.839Z | 99.0% | 99.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:32:54.531Z | 99.0% | 99.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:33:48.133Z | 99.0% | 99.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T13:34:42.717Z | 92.5% | 99.0% | +6.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.7%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.1%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.