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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.67 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%52.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.67 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 36.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 29, 01:15 PMJul 29, 01:17 PMJul 29, 01:19 PMJul 29, 01:21 PMJul 29, 01:23 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-29T13:15:16.636Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:15:45.494Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:16:44.240Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:16:52.451Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:17:15.960Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:17:42.409Z47.5%100.0%+52.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:18:48.861Z0.5%47.5%+47.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:19:01.382Z47.5%47.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:19:17.072Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:19:41.948Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:20:59.890Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:21:11.944Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:21:21.922Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:21:42.169Z0.5%100.0%+99.5 pp
2026-07-29T13:22:41.831Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:23:14.105Z36.5%36.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T13:23:42.438Z0.0%36.5%+36.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 52.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 53.1%, gross edge 47.0%, slippage 0.1%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 44.6%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.67 pp Edge | AntiPredict