VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +78.40 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 29, 07:50 AMJul 29, 07:53 AMJul 29, 07:55 AMJul 29, 07:57 AMJul 29, 07:59 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T07:50:51.489Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:51:08.123Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:52:48.015Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:53:08.575Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:54:40.077Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:54:44.920Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:55:10.238Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:55:43.040Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:56:40.766Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:56:49.908Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:58:07.480Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:58:44.130Z | 5.5% | 0.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:59:30.573Z | 0.0% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:59:39.427Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T07:59:50.726Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 20.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 78.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 20.0%, gross edge 81.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.1%, safety 0.5%, net edge 78.4%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.