VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.56 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.2% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.56 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 50.5%Marx Fair UP 50.5%

Jul 29, 07:10 AMJul 29, 07:12 AMJul 29, 07:14 AMJul 29, 07:17 AMJul 29, 07:19 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-29T07:10:04.414Z	49.5%	100.0%	+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:10:12.742Z	49.5%	100.0%	+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:11:46.689Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T07:12:08.132Z	49.5%	100.0%	+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:13:50.807Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T07:14:40.756Z	49.5%	100.0%	+50.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:14:40.757Z	50.5%	100.0%	+49.5 pp
2026-07-29T07:15:42.967Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T07:15:47.918Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T07:16:39.653Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T07:17:43.784Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T07:18:39.742Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-29T07:19:39.277Z	50.5%	50.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.6 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 50.7%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.1%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.