VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +59.65 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 5.5%
Jul 29, 04:40 AMJul 29, 04:42 AMJul 29, 04:44 AMJul 29, 04:46 AMJul 29, 04:48 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T04:40:48.694Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:41:06.422Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:41:09.454Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:41:41.415Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:42:46.184Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:42:47.229Z | 43.5% | 43.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:43:07.831Z | 43.5% | 100.0% | +56.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:44:06.048Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:44:38.851Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:44:48.171Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:45:35.719Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:45:42.435Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:46:40.592Z | 5.5% | 100.0% | +94.5 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:47:43.519Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:47:55.048Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-29T04:48:39.929Z | 0.0% | 5.5% | +5.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 43.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 38.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 59.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 38.2%, gross edge 62.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 59.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.