VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +25.57 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 89.5%Marx Fair UP 89.5%
Jul 28, 11:26 PMJul 28, 11:28 PMJul 28, 11:30 PMJul 28, 11:31 PMJul 28, 11:33 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T23:26:40.763Z | 17.5% | 100.0% | +82.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:27:50.216Z | 17.5% | 100.0% | +82.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:28:57.438Z | 89.5% | 100.0% | +10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:29:05.928Z | 89.5% | 100.0% | +10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:29:42.208Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:29:53.622Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:30:42.097Z | 89.5% | 100.0% | +10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:30:53.089Z | 89.5% | 100.0% | +10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T23:33:34.081Z | 89.5% | 89.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
- The executable UP entry was 72.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 25.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 72.5%, gross edge 27.9%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 25.6%. Marx fair UP is 99.9%.