VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +28.28 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.9% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY17.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+28.28 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN81.4%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 10:31 PMJul 28, 10:33 PMJul 28, 10:35 PMJul 28, 10:36 PMJul 28, 10:38 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T22:31:41.144Z	19.5%	0.0%	-19.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:32:43.298Z	1.5%	0.0%	-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:33:37.326Z	1.5%	0.0%	-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:33:42.084Z	1.5%	0.0%	-1.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:34:41.185Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:35:41.855Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:36:40.869Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:38:26.163Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 17.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.9¢ with a net modeled edge of 28.3 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.8%, gross edge 30.8%, slippage 0.8%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 27.8%. Marx fair UP is 18.2%.