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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.19 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%54.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+43.19 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN77.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 55.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 09:55 PMJul 28, 09:57 PMJul 28, 09:59 PMJul 28, 10:02 PMJul 28, 10:04 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T21:55:10.625Z57.5%0.0%-57.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:56:40.901Z57.5%0.0%-57.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:58:02.789Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:58:55.831Z57.5%0.0%-57.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:59:45.556Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:59:58.747Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:00:58.188Z0.1%0.5%+0.5 pp
2026-07-28T22:01:03.934Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:01:15.133Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:02:01.610Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:02:46.034Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:03:40.097Z55.5%55.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:04:20.375Z55.5%55.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T22:04:41.603Z0.0%55.5%+55.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 54.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 43.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 42.6%, gross edge 58.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 55.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +43.19 pp Edge | AntiPredict