VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.71 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY5.5%67.2% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+30.71 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN45.4%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 09:05 PMJul 28, 09:08 PMJul 28, 09:10 PMJul 28, 09:12 PMJul 28, 09:14 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T21:05:55.786Z	55.5%	0.0%	-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:06:42.348Z	55.5%	0.0%	-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:07:41.334Z	55.5%	0.0%	-55.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:08:41.782Z	5.5%	0.0%	-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:08:53.497Z	5.5%	0.0%	-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:09:40.645Z	5.5%	0.0%	-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:10:39.713Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:10:53.894Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:13:21.797Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:14:41.700Z	0.0%	0.5%	+0.5 pp
2026-07-28T21:14:48.748Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T21:14:55.186Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 5.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 67.2¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.7 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 67.2%, gross edge 33.0%, slippage 0.2%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.