VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +17.78 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.0%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Jul 28, 08:51 PMJul 28, 08:53 PMJul 28, 08:55 PMJul 28, 08:57 PMJul 28, 08:59 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T20:51:43.863Z | 18.5% | 0.0% | -18.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:52:42.396Z | 18.5% | 0.0% | -18.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:53:41.751Z | 18.5% | 0.0% | -18.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:54:42.811Z | 18.5% | 0.0% | -18.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:55:43.918Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:56:07.612Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:56:40.943Z | 0.5% | 0.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:58:01.786Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:58:17.127Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:59:00.948Z | 0.0% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:59:08.901Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T20:59:41.701Z | 0.0% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 80.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 17.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 80.6%, gross edge 20.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.1%, safety 0.5%, net edge 17.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.