Ethereum Prediction Markets
Ethereum 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN84.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 7.5%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 08:35 PMJul 28, 08:37 PMJul 28, 08:40 PMJul 28, 08:42 PMJul 28, 08:44 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T20:35:41.759Z68.5%0.0%-68.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:36:43.436Z68.5%0.0%-68.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:37:41.960Z68.5%0.0%-68.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:38:43.281Z68.5%0.0%-68.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:39:41.606Z68.5%0.0%-68.5 pp
2026-07-28T20:40:41.851Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:41:17.281Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:41:39.018Z0.1%0.0%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:42:50.259Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:42:58.629Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T20:43:43.526Z7.5%0.1%-7.4 pp
2026-07-28T20:44:12.195Z0.0%0.1%+0.1 pp
2026-07-28T20:44:41.593Z7.5%0.1%-7.4 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.5%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.5%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.3%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict