VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.37 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.4% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.37 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 69.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 28, 07:20 PMJul 28, 07:22 PMJul 28, 07:25 PMJul 28, 07:27 PMJul 28, 07:29 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T19:20:39.989Z	95.5%	99.5%	+4.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:24:41.100Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:25:38.593Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:26:40.719Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:27:46.305Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:27:51.962Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:28:43.799Z	69.5%	99.5%	+30.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:29:11.250Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:29:42.062Z	69.5%	99.5%	+30.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.4 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 40.3%, gross edge 60.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 57.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.