VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 28, 07:01 PMJul 28, 07:03 PMJul 28, 07:04 PMJul 28, 07:06 PMJul 28, 07:08 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T19:01:29.515Z	82.5%	99.5%	+17.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:01:38.453Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:04:40.992Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:05:41.325Z	100.0%	99.5%	-0.4 pp
2026-07-28T19:06:40.200Z	100.0%	99.5%	-0.4 pp
2026-07-28T19:07:44.566Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T19:08:18.130Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 33.3%, gross edge 67.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 64.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.