VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +44.76 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%53.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+44.76 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN82.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%

Jul 28, 06:07 PMJul 28, 06:09 PMJul 28, 06:11 PMJul 28, 06:13 PMJul 28, 06:14 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T18:07:09.526Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T18:07:49.673Z	50.5%	0.0%	-50.5 pp
2026-07-28T18:08:48.060Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T18:10:21.378Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T18:10:53.262Z	0.5%	0.0%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T18:12:01.324Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T18:12:14.198Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T18:12:55.128Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T18:13:54.699Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T18:14:58.465Z	0.5%	0.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 53.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 44.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 78.7%, gross edge 22.0%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.2%, safety 0.5%, net edge 19.6%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.