VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.61 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%52.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.1%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+45.61 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%

Jul 28, 05:20 PMJul 28, 05:22 PMJul 28, 05:25 PMJul 28, 05:27 PMJul 28, 05:29 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-28T17:20:18.732Z	50.5%	99.5%	+49.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:21:15.801Z	92.5%	99.5%	+7.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:22:15.806Z	92.5%	99.5%	+7.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:23:15.845Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:24:16.125Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:25:15.989Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:28:04.965Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T17:29:27.645Z	100.0%	99.5%	-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T17:29:43.605Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 0.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.6 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 48.9%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.1%.