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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.01 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.7% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.01 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN86.9%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 04:26 PMJul 28, 04:28 PMJul 28, 04:30 PMJul 28, 04:32 PMJul 28, 04:34 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T16:26:15.129Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:26:23.983Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:26:46.499Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:28:22.550Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:28:25.724Z8.5%49.5%+41.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:29:25.035Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:29:25.533Z8.5%8.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:29:57.020Z8.5%0.0%-8.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:30:28.186Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:30:38.975Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:31:25.570Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:31:33.003Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:32:31.323Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:33:25.818Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:34:25.950Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.3%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.4%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.01 pp Edge | AntiPredict