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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.97 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%51.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.97 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN88.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 04:10 PMJul 28, 04:12 PMJul 28, 04:14 PMJul 28, 04:17 PMJul 28, 04:19 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T16:10:16.966Z38.5%38.6%+0.1 pp
2026-07-28T16:11:15.403Z38.5%38.6%+0.1 pp
2026-07-28T16:11:23.343Z38.5%38.6%+0.1 pp
2026-07-28T16:11:45.239Z38.5%0.0%-38.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:12:15.288Z38.5%0.0%-38.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:13:17.668Z38.5%38.6%+0.1 pp
2026-07-28T16:13:24.651Z38.5%38.6%+0.1 pp
2026-07-28T16:13:48.064Z38.5%0.0%-38.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:14:30.763Z5.5%0.0%-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:14:36.939Z5.5%0.0%-5.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:15:15.603Z5.5%5.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:15:38.755Z5.5%5.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:16:15.643Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:16:22.821Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:17:15.050Z0.5%0.0%-0.5 pp
2026-07-28T16:18:17.386Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:18:28.581Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T16:19:15.337Z0.5%0.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 51.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.0 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.97 pp Edge | AntiPredict