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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +39.94 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%52.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY5.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+39.94 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN86.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 42.5%Marx Fair UP 42.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 03:50 PMJul 28, 03:53 PMJul 28, 03:55 PMJul 28, 03:57 PMJul 28, 03:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T15:50:53.145Z22.5%49.5%+27.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:51:23.716Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:51:28.210Z19.5%19.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:51:38.540Z22.5%22.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:51:43.766Z22.5%0.0%-22.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:52:15.141Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:53:19.623Z19.5%19.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:53:29.623Z23.5%23.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:53:45.664Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:53:46.222Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:54:15.128Z23.5%0.0%-23.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:55:15.171Z19.5%23.5%+4.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:55:19.778Z23.5%23.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:55:28.456Z19.5%19.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:55:46.428Z19.5%0.0%-19.5 pp
2026-07-28T15:57:15.065Z19.5%19.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:57:45.182Z19.5%19.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:58:17.478Z42.5%19.5%-23.0 pp
2026-07-28T15:59:43.370Z42.5%42.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 5.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 39.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 43.2%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 39.9%. Marx fair UP is 5.8%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +39.94 pp Edge | AntiPredict