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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.20 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY47.5%55.6% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+42.20 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 24.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 12:50 PMJul 28, 12:52 PMJul 28, 12:55 PMJul 28, 12:57 PMJul 28, 12:59 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T12:50:31.420Z25.5%25.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:50:40.546Z25.5%25.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:51:10.023Z25.5%0.0%-25.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:51:31.004Z25.5%0.0%-25.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:52:37.828Z25.5%25.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:52:45.799Z25.5%25.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:52:58.228Z25.5%0.0%-25.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:52:58.861Z25.5%0.0%-25.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:54:02.802Z7.5%0.0%-7.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:54:12.489Z7.5%0.0%-7.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:54:30.953Z24.5%0.0%-24.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:54:34.744Z36.5%0.0%-36.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:54:42.252Z24.5%24.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:55:32.657Z24.5%0.0%-24.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:55:32.759Z24.5%0.0%-24.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:56:30.919Z24.5%0.0%-24.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:57:31.326Z24.5%24.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:57:35.709Z24.5%24.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:58:30.924Z24.5%24.5%-0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:59:30.931Z100.0%24.5%-75.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 47.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 55.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 42.2 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 55.6%, gross edge 45.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 42.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +42.20 pp Edge | AntiPredict