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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.47 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%52.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.47 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 12:30 PMJul 28, 12:32 PMJul 28, 12:33 PMJul 28, 12:35 PMJul 28, 12:36 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T12:30:37.935Z41.5%41.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:30:49.372Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:31:00.229Z66.5%0.0%-66.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:31:31.208Z66.5%0.0%-66.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:32:30.991Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:32:46.329Z66.5%66.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:33:01.558Z66.5%0.0%-66.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:33:31.083Z66.5%0.0%-66.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:34:31.861Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:35:33.312Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:36:31.053Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:36:50.828Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 52.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.3%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.5%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.47 pp Edge | AntiPredict