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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.75 pp Edge

Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.0%52.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY0.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+45.75 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 83.5%Marx Fair UP 83.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 28, 12:15 PMJul 28, 12:17 PMJul 28, 12:19 PMJul 28, 12:22 PMJul 28, 12:24 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T12:15:31.400Z40.5%40.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:15:45.362Z40.5%40.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:16:01.011Z40.5%0.0%-40.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:16:31.012Z83.5%0.0%-83.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:17:41.245Z49.5%49.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:17:58.675Z49.5%0.0%-49.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:19:55.737Z83.5%83.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:20:05.240Z83.5%0.0%-83.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:20:32.794Z99.5%0.0%-99.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:21:31.027Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:21:59.331Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:22:35.448Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:23:53.520Z100.0%83.5%-16.5 pp
2026-07-28T12:24:07.255Z83.5%83.5%+0.0 pp
2026-07-28T12:24:19.072Z83.5%83.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.0%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 52.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 45.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 1.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.8%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.

ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +45.75 pp Edge | AntiPredict