VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +38.18 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.0%Marx Fair UP 99.0%
Jul 28, 12:00 PMJul 28, 12:02 PMJul 28, 12:05 PMJul 28, 12:07 PMJul 28, 12:09 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T12:00:07.379Z | 50.5% | 0.0% | -50.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:01:32.082Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:01:39.867Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:02:01.340Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:02:33.811Z | 52.5% | 0.0% | -52.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:03:31.090Z | 5.5% | 52.5% | +47.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:03:39.662Z | 52.5% | 52.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:03:44.959Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:04:03.648Z | 5.5% | 0.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:04:31.175Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:04:54.227Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:05:31.324Z | 97.5% | 5.5% | -92.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:05:46.797Z | 5.5% | 5.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:05:55.712Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:06:03.236Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:06:31.919Z | 97.5% | 0.0% | -97.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:07:35.553Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:07:45.219Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:08:32.852Z | 97.5% | 97.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:09:17.290Z | 100.0% | 99.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:09:30.996Z | 99.0% | 99.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T12:09:56.265Z | 99.0% | 99.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 59.6¢ with a net modeled edge of 38.2 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 59.6%, gross edge 41.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 38.2%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.