VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
ETH 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +47.75 pp Edge
Ethereum Up or Down - July 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 97.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 28, 11:46 AMJul 28, 11:48 AMJul 28, 11:50 AMJul 28, 11:52 AMJul 28, 11:54 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T11:46:34.572Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:55.014Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:57.846Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:59.936Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:47:32.144Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:30.857Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:44.005Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:48:57.758Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:49:30.934Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:50:30.887Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:50:35.995Z | 79.5% | 79.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:50:59.745Z | 79.5% | 0.0% | -79.5 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:51:32.448Z | 100.0% | 0.0% | -99.9 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:52:34.035Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:52:40.209Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:53:59.895Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:54:13.140Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-28T11:54:30.984Z | 97.5% | 100.0% | +2.5 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 0.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 47.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 50.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 47.7%. Marx fair UP is 0.0%.